A year ago, your portfolio was worth €5,000. Today it's worth €40,000. Your altcoins are up 30% a week, friends are asking you for advice, and you catch yourself calculating how much you'll have "when it does another 3x". You don't sell anything, since everything is going up. Eighteen months later, your portfolio is back down to €7,000.
Thousands of investors have lived this scenario in every cycle. The problem wasn't missing the bull run: it was not being prepared for it. Here's how to recognize a crypto bull run, understand its phases, and above all come out of it with real gains.
What Is a Crypto Bull Run?
A bull run is a prolonged period of rising prices in a market, driven by growing optimism and an influx of new capital. The term comes from the bull, which attacks by thrusting its horns upward. It is the opposite of a bear market, symbolized by the bear swiping downward.
In crypto, bull runs are especially spectacular. Where a rising stock market might gain 20 to 30% in a year, Bitcoin has several times risen tenfold or more over a cycle, and some altcoins far more. The downside is just as extreme: the bear markets that followed have historically seen Bitcoin lose roughly 75 to 85% from its peak, and many altcoins more than 90%.
A bull run isn't just a rally of a few weeks. It usually stretches over many months, sometimes more than a year, and is part of what is called the crypto cycle: accumulation, rise, euphoria, then correction.
The Great Bull Runs in Crypto History
2013. Bitcoin went from around ten dollars at the start of the year to more than $1,000 by the end of it. The market was still tiny, and the collapse of Mt. Gox in 2014 brought the cycle to a brutal end.
2017. The bull run that brought crypto to the general public. Bitcoin approached $20,000 in December 2017, fueled by the ICO wave. Most tokens launched during that period have since lost most of their value.
2020 to 2021. After the March 2020 crash, Bitcoin reached around $69,000 in November 2021. This cycle was marked by the arrival of institutional investors, the rise of DeFi, and the NFT craze.
2024 to 2025. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States in January 2024 opened the door to significant institutional inflows. Bitcoin broke its previous record as early as March 2024, even before the halving, then crossed $100,000 in late 2024. This cycle also stood out for a much less widespread altseason than in previous cycles, with capital remaining largely concentrated in Bitcoin.
The Typical Phases of a Bull Run
No two cycles are exactly alike, but a sequence tends to repeat.
Phase 1: Bitcoin leads the way. The first capital flows back into the asset seen as the safest in the market. Bitcoin climbs, its dominance rises, and altcoins lag behind. The general public isn't paying attention yet.
Phase 2: Ethereum and large caps. Once Bitcoin is established at new highs, part of the gains rotate into Ethereum and then into large-cap assets. Investors look for more upside potential.
Phase 3: altseason. Capital pours into smaller altcoins. Unknown tokens do 5x or 10x in a few weeks. Bitcoin dominance drops sharply: this is often one of the clearest signals of this phase.
Phase 4: euphoria. Memecoins explode, mainstream media talk about crypto every day, and everyone has a friend who got "rich". This is usually when risk is highest, even though the sense of safety has never been stronger.
The Halving's Role: A Factor, Not a Clock
The Bitcoin halving cuts the miners' reward in half roughly every four years. Historically, major bull runs took place within 12 to 18 months after a halving (2012, 2016, 2020), which fed the idea of an almost mechanical four-year cycle.
That reading needs nuance. The sample is very small (only a handful of cycles), the impact of lower issuance becomes proportionally weaker with each halving, and other factors weigh heavily: monetary policy, global liquidity, the arrival of ETFs. The 2024 cycle showed this, with a record broken before the halving. Treat the halving as context, not as a reliable calendar.
Signals of a Bull Run and of Its End
It's impossible to date the top of a cycle precisely. Some signals can still help you gauge the market's temperature.
Bitcoin dominance. Dominance rising early in the cycle and then falling sharply often accompanies altseason, and therefore the late phases of the bull run.
Media and FOMO. When crypto makes the evening news, consumer apps push token purchases, and people who knew nothing about it ask you what to buy, FOMO is at its peak.
Retail inflows. Exchange app rankings in the app stores, Google search volume, and new sign-ups are indirect indicators of the general public's arrival, which usually comes late in the cycle.
Leverage and funding rates. Very high funding rates on perpetual contracts mean that most traders are betting on further gains with leverage. That makes the market vulnerable to liquidation cascades.
Memecoin mania. When tokens with no utility at all reach multi-billion valuations in a few days, speculation has generally overtaken any fundamental logic.
None of these signals is enough on its own. It's their accumulation that should alert you.
How to Prepare for a Bull Run
Preparation happens beforehand, while the market is calm and you can think without pressure.
Write your plan in advance. For each position, define why you hold it, over what horizon, and under what conditions you'll sell. A plan decided with a cool head is far easier to stick to than a decision made in the middle of euphoria.
Set profit-taking levels. Instead of trying to sell at the exact top, sell progressively: for example 10 to 20% of the position at each predefined price level. You'll never sell at the very top, but you'll avoid giving everything back to the market.
Rebalance into stablecoins. Converting part of your gains into stablecoins locks in value and gives you cash to buy back during the next correction.
Avoid leverage. Leverage turns a 30% correction, which is ordinary in a bull run, into a total liquidation. Intermediate corrections are frequent, even in the most bullish cycles.
Keep your DCA discipline. A DCA strategy keeps you from investing all your capital at the worst moment. You can also apply it on the way out, by selling in regular tranches.
Separate realized and unrealized gains. Until you sell, your gains are only theoretical. Tracking realized and unrealized gains separately, for example in Exceefy, shows you what you've actually secured.
The Psychological Traps of a Bull Run
FOMO. Watching others make money makes you want to buy anything, at any time. It's often late in the cycle that the amounts invested are the largest.
Anchoring on the top. Once a token has hit a record price, that number becomes your reference. You refuse to sell 30% lower while waiting for it "to get back there", even though it may never do so.
The illusion of paper gains. A portfolio that has grown fivefold gives a misleading feeling of wealth. As our article on paper gains and mental biases explains, these unrealized gains can vanish much faster than they appeared.
FAQ
How long does a crypto bull run last?
Historically, the main crypto bull runs have lasted roughly one year to a year and a half, with sharp intermediate corrections. These durations are indicative only: nothing guarantees that future cycles will follow the same rhythm.
What is altseason?
Altseason is the phase of a bull run during which altcoins clearly outperform Bitcoin. It usually shows up as a marked drop in Bitcoin dominance. It can be short, and not every cycle has an equally strong one.
How do you know the bull run is over?
Often you only know in hindsight. However, an accumulation of signals (media euphoria, excessive leverage, memecoin mania, a sharp drop in dominance) should push you to execute your profit-taking plan rather than wait for confirmation.
Should you sell everything during a bull run?
Not necessarily. Many investors choose to secure part of their gains while keeping a long-term position in the assets they believe in. What matters is having defined that balance in advance, based on your goals and risk tolerance.
